Hedgehog
Describe a risk

For companies exposed to real-world events

Describe the risk. We’ll structure the hedge.

Say what could hurt the business, in your own words. You get a contract ticket to approve, then we find the market or request one.

Try an example:

  • Free to register
  • Nothing is traded until you approve
  • Reply within 24 hours on new markets

See it work

Watch a sentence become a contract ticket

One trigger anyone can check, a named settlement source, and your approval before anything moves.

Contract ticket · example

What the client wrote

“We refinance a $40M loan next June. If the Fed hasn’t cut rates by then, our interest bill rises by about $600k.”
CFO · logistics group · example
Contract ticketRouted

Structure: Underlying, trigger, notional, expiry, settlement source, and venue decision.

Underlying
Federal funds target rate, upper bound
Trigger
No cut announced by the June 2027 FOMC meeting
Notional
$600,000
Expiry
30 Jun 2027
Settlement source
Federal Reserve FOMC statement
Venue decision
Auto (Best Execution)

ReferenceHB-4F7K2Q

  1. Structured
  2. Approved
  3. Match checked
Market found

Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US list this event. Cost is shown per venue before you trade.

Example tickets, not live requests.

prediction markets indexed
218,615
order books walked to measure real depth
24,179
deepest single contract on a corporate risk
$974k
reply time when we request a new market
24h

How it works

From a sentence to a hedge you can approve

Four steps, and you stay in control at the one that matters: nothing is sent anywhere until you approve the ticket.

  1. 01

    You

    Describe

    Your company, where you are based, and the problem, in the words your team already uses.

    Explain your problem.

    “Our $80M development needs its permit before September 2027.”

  2. 02

    We draft · you approve

    Structure

    A contract ticket with one checkable trigger and a named settlement source. Edit any row, then approve.

    TRIGGER
    Permit not approved by 1 Sep 2027
    SOURCE
    City permit register
    Approve ticket
  3. 03

    We check

    Match

    We search Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US for a market that settles the same way, with the cost on each.

    VenueCost
    Kalshifee + spread
    Polymarketfee + spread
    Polymarket USfee + spread
  4. 04

    We route

    Trade or launch

    If the market exists, trade it from here. If not, we request a launch and a counterparty prices it.

    Market existsPlace the order on your chosen venue
    No market yetLaunch request, priced within 24 hours

What the market holdsTo confirm: publish

Most business risks don’t have a deep market yet. That’s why we exist.

We walked every Polymarket order book and measured how much downside protection a company could actually buy. The depth sits in elections. The risks companies carry hold very little: the 47 tariff markets offer $37k between them.

So we size hedges honestly, and when the market isn’t there we request one. A counterparty prices it, and you get an answer within 24 hours.

Downside protection you could buy today, by risk

Tail-side capacity by risk category, measured 23 Aug 2026
RiskCapacity
Elections & policy$261.8M
Geopolitics$15.8M
Crypto$10.8M
Climate & weather$8.8M
Rates & macro$7.9M
Tech & product$4.9M
Corporate events$2.3M
AI & compute$1.9M
Energy & power$1.4M
Regulation & antitrust$588k
Pharma & FDA$92k
Tariffs & trade$37k
Tail-side capacity within 500 bps of the best price, all Polymarket contracts in each category, log scale. Full-coverage run, 23 Aug 2026. Shaded: typical corporate hedge size, $100k–$1M.

What we never do

We structure and route. We never take the other side.

We don’t take risk
A counterparty or the venue’s market prices your hedge. Hedgehog is never the party that pays out.
It isn’t insurance
No policy, no premium, no payout guarantee from us. A contract on a public event, settled by a named public source.
Nothing moves without your approval
You approve the ticket before any match, order or launch request is sent. Every request carries a reference you can track.
Trades happen on the venuesTo confirm
Existing markets trade on Kalshi, Polymarket or Polymarket US, subject to where you are based. We don’t hold client funds.

For market makers

Price corporate event risk before it reaches a venue.

Every launch request is a structured, approved ticket from a real company. Register to see the flow and quote on it.

Register as a market maker
Launch requestsExample feed
ReceivedTicketNotional
09:12 ETCat 1+ landfall, Texas coast, by 30 Nov 2027$900,000
08:47 ETBuilding permit not approved by 1 Sep 2027$750,000
YesterdayEU steel safeguard duty above 25% by 31 Mar 2027$400,000

What would it cost to hedge your risk?

Describe it in a sentence. Registering is free and doesn’t place a trade or request a market.

Describe a risk Create an account